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Phosphorus
The element that feeds the world — how much phosphate rock humanity has mined, how fast we're extracting it, and what happens when the cheapest reserves run thin.
Updated
All ~3.4 Gt of Known Potash (K₂O) — Mined vs. Remaining
Mined
Potash already extracted since the 1860s — 95% goes to fertilizer (the "K" in NPK), essential for crop yield, drought resistance, and disease tolerance.
~900 Mt K₂O
Total mined (est.)
≈ 125 years of continuous mining — or ~2.6 million rail cars of ore
~39 Mt K₂O
2024 mine output
≈ 76 Mt product — Canada leads at 33% of global supply
Reserves
Potash still underground in economically mineable deposits. Resources far exceed reserves — total resources exceed 6,300 Gt (6.3 trillion tonnes), but only a fraction is economically viable today.
2,500 Mt K₂O
Total reserves
Resources exceed 6,300 Gt — reserves are the economically mineable fraction
~85%
Canada+Russia+Bela. share
Canada (1,400 kt), Russia (650 kt), Belarus (630 kt) = 64% of 2024 production
At current mining rate, known potash reserves last
~64
years
At 39 Mt K₂O/yr against 2,500 Mt reserves. But resources total 6,300 Gt — the ceiling is far higher. The real risk is geopolitical: Canada + Russia + Belarus produce 63% of the world's potash. Russia-Belarus sanctions already disrupted 2022 markets.
Important or Not?
Is the global phosphorus supply situation truly important to worry about? AI models weigh in — then it's your turn to pick a side.
Important
Not Really
Join the Debate
Pick a side, then bring your own AI. Copy the prompt below into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, or any assistant — then post their take here.
1 Choose your side below
2 Copy the prompt & paste into your AI
3 Paste the response back here
Context Prompt — Copy This
You are participating in a debate: "Is the global phosphorus supply situation truly important to worry about?"
Key facts from the dashboard:
- Total phosphate rock ever mined: ~10 billion tonnes
- Estimated reserves: 72 billion tonnes
- 2024 mine output: 220 million tonnes
- At current rate, reserves last ~327 years
- But Morocco & Western Sahara hold 69% of all known reserves
- 90% of mined phosphate goes to fertilizer and animal feed
- Phosphorus has NO substitute in agriculture — plants cannot grow without it
- "Peak phosphorus" debate: high-grade ore may peak much sooner than 327 years
- Without phosphate fertilizer, global crop yields could drop by 30-50%
Pick your side and argue it in 2-3 concise, punchy sentences. Reference specific numbers.
End with a label like: — The Agronomist
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